Trump's Job Approval by Geography and Demographics
An interactive explorer of Donald Trump's approval rating across the United States and by demographic group. Estimates are produced using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) on the monthly Strength In Numbers / Verasight national poll — more than 12,000 pooled interviews from May 2025 onward — and poststratified to U.S. Census American Community Survey (ACS) population counts.
What the tool shows
- A national choropleth map at the Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA) level (approximately 2,350 areas covering every U.S. household).
- State-level rollups with 95% credible intervals.
- Demographic breakdowns by 2024 vote choice, sex, age, race, education, income, and crosstabs (race × education, sex × age).
- Gap charts showing polarization (e.g., Trump voters vs. Harris voters, white vs. Black, ages 65+ vs. 18–29).
Methodology
A Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression (fit in Stan) models approval as a function of demographic predictors (age, sex, race, education, income), political predictors (2024 turnout and vote choice, imputed onto the ACS frame), and geographic random effects at the state and PUMA level. Predictions for every demographic–geographic cell are then poststratified to ACS population counts. Political variables are calibrated to the known 2024 election result via a two-stage imputation process.
Related projects
By G. Elliott Morris, author of Strength In Numbers.